Manning's status no longer in doubt
Football Betting Lines
02/02/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Listen to a presidential campaign long enough and you're bound to hear the phrase: Are you better off than you were four years ago?
But while Democrats, Republicans, Independents and Anarchists might come up with four different answers in 2012, chances are the fans of the New York Giants will be unanimous in their response.
Without a doubt...yes.
Back then, as their 2007 team -- playoff-worthy via the Wild Card route and NFC Super Bowl representatives thanks to three straight postseason road wins -- headed into an Arizona showdown with the history-primed New England Patriots, most would've been happy with something short of an all-time rout by the Giants' then-undefeated opponent.
Instead, thanks in large part to the heroics of a previously underappreciated quarterback, Big Blue emerged with a 17-14 victory in Super Bowl XLII in what will long stand as one of the NFL's most improbable upsets.
Fast forward to this week, and the Giants again find themselves on familiar turf.
Forgotten entries into the NFC playoffs, winners of three straight January games -- including two on the road against the conference's No. 1 and 2 seeds -- and again on their way to a championship chance against a New England team positioned as at least a three-point favorite in most circles.
But in spite of the odds, the fans of the football Giants aren't just hoping to show up this time. They're expecting to win.
The reason? It's simple.
The quarterback.
While he still travels in a prodigious shadow cast by his older brother and lines up for New York's Super Bowl XLVI clash across from two-time league MVP and supermodel-magnet Tom Brady, Eli Manning has taken a prodigious leap in status since first dipping his toe in the elite waters back in Arizona in February of 2008.
"He's been able to stand in there and make the most difficult plays," Giants head coach Tom Coughlin said. "He's literally taken this team on his shoulders."
Though this year's Giants were a game worse in the standings then the 2007 version, a more-polished Manning was significantly better than his first Super Bowl season by nearly every measure, increasing his totals for completions (359 to 297), completion percentage (61.0 to 56.1), passing yards (4,933 to 3,336) and touchdown passes (29 to 23).
Not to mention the jump in public perception from a boyish "Gilligan" to "Cool Hand Luke."
"This is a significant moment for Eli and how he will be perceived," said Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman, who won three Super Bowls in 12 NFL seasons with the Dallas Cowboys. "If Eli were to win Sunday, he is no longer Peyton Manning's little brother. It elevates him to a higher status. Not saying he would be regarded as better than Peyton. But if someone wants to make the argument, at least he has provided them with ammunition."
There weren't many who held Manning in such praise following a trying rookie season in 2004.
Widely reviled after a draft-day stubbornness moved him from San Diego to New York, that year's No. 1 overall pick was an awkward work in progress as a seven-start successor to Kurt Warner, winning just once while completing less than half of 197 passes and throwing nine interceptions to just six touchdowns.
Manning successfully nudged both ratios past the 50-50 mark in the subsequent three full seasons, but was still viewed solely as a pretender to the Manning name -- and the NFL penthouse -- until orchestrating that final drive against the Pats that included a desperation fling to David Tyree and a precise fade to Plaxico Burress.
Nonetheless, he was still chastised during this year's preseason for claiming he was an elite quarterback in the same class of Brady.
"I thought I gave an honest answer," Manning said about the unforeseen controversy over his remarks. "I didn't regret it at the time or think anything of it at the time."
These days, it seems no one's arguing. In fact, the chatter has turned from whether Manning's elite to whether he's now Canton-worthy.
Of the eight non-active passers who've won at least two Super Bowl titles, seven are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, including names like Starr, Bradshaw, Staubach, Montana, Aikman and Elway.
Just two active quarterbacks have won at least two titles: Brady and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.
"The second [Super Bowl win] validates the first one," said Bob Griese, who led the Miami Dolphins to two titles in the 1970's. "It probably helped me get into the Hall of Fame. Lots of guys win one."
The only exception to the dual Super-winning rule is Jim Plunkett, who guided the Raiders to a pair of championships between 1980-83 but has not been elected to the Hall of Fame.
"At Thanksgiving or Christmas, Eli probably would like to be able to say to Peyton, 'You might have been a great quarterback, but how many Super Bowls did you win?, Staubach said. "'I'm sure it would be very meaningful to him."
For his part, the younger Manning claims no such familial envy.
In fact, when asked this week about the suddenly iffy career status of brother Peyton, who missed the entire 2011 season with the Indianapolis Colts after neck surgery, he was nothing but complimentary.
"Peyton has had an unbelievable career and in my opinion is the best I've ever seen play football," Eli Manning said. "My goal is to get to his level of play. That's something I've worked on.
"I am five years younger than Peyton, but growing up we would always compete. When I got a little bit older, 15 or 16 years old, we could finally start being on the same level and compete in playing basketball, ping-pong or pool. Competition is a great thing. It brings out the best in people. It does make you work harder, to try to get to that level where you can compete with your older brother."
As for winning a career-defining game in big brother's home stadium, as Super Bowl XLVI will be held in Indianapolis, Manning claims it's a non-factor.
"I'm excited about being here," he said. "My mindset is I'm here to play a game. This is just a Super Bowl venue. I'm not looking at the fact that this is where Peyton has played his career. I'm just trying to go out there and play my best football and try to get a championship for the New York Giants."
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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